Life In The Cell

My, Oh My, KW Has Been Busy: The Nick Swisher Trade

The Transaction: The White Sox acquired OF Nick Swisher from the Oakland Athletics in exchange for LHP Gio Gonzalez, RHP Fautino De Los Santos and OF Ryan Sweeney.

The Circumstances: This one came straight outta left field. There was nothing to even hint at KW’s interest in Swisher or the fact that he was willing to trade any of the players that were sent to Oakland.

Thoughts at the Time: When I found out about the trade, I thought I was in bizarro world. First off, I was sitting in a bed in Sri Lanka, I was groggy having just woken up from a mid-day siesta and hot (the humidity is a killer) and I was just about ready to write this off as a bad dream. It has happened before after all, but reality set in and all I could say was, “No! God, no! Shit, shit, shit, shit. Well there goes the Sox future.” For the rest of the day, I refused to even read about the trade or investigate. In my mind, Kenny had lost it; he had vastly overpaid for a mediocrehitter in Swisher. I would have accepted one of DLS or Gio going there, but definitely not both.

I went to sleep angry, but come the next day, I started probing and researching, and felt moderately better. Then I mulled it over dinner, slept on it some more and decided that in a vacuum, I liked this trade, and as far as outside of said vacuum is concerned, it was an ok to moderately good trade. I definitely at that point could see where KW was coming from and what led him to pull the trigger on such a major trade.

Anyway, if you’re still unsure about the trade, here at least, are the thoughts that swayed me from suicidal to suprisingly okay…

The first thing I had to do was remove my irrational attachments to DLS and Gio. It’s perfectly natural as a fan to overvalue your team’s prospects/young players. It’s not a bad thing, it’s just what happens as you watch a player develop and you play out scenarios in your head where he’ll eventually help the big league squad. I, afterall, like many Sox’ fans, was counting on the day Joe Borchard was regularly blasting 500-foot homers for the big league club. That day didn’t and never will come, but I’m still somehow attached to him; even when he was on the Marlins, I still was hoping that he would succeed. I realize that Gio and DLS performed better in the minors than Joltin’ Joe Borchard did, but still I had to recalibrate my assessments of them slightly and also realize that there’s still the chance they could wash out and not produce in the bigs.

Gio, as well as he did (leading the minors in K’s, sparkling ERA, etc), did repeat AA; you cannot discount that fact, even though he still is young. He is also a big time flyball pitcher, which doesn’t suit The Cell well. This could fall under the category of conspiracy theory, but I tossed this idea around with a friend and he agreed it’s plausible. Perhaps the Sox and their scouts decided that Gio wasn’t going to be that good of a major leaguer. You may be thinking, but Jeeves, he tore apart AA, which is true, but then you must ask yourself why he never garnered a promotion. A lot of people were saying last year that he’d be major league ready for this season, so why not test him out in AAA? One potential reason is to preserve his trade value. While Birmingham has a huge field, Charlotte is a bandbox, and Gio’s flyball tendencies would definitely have haunted him in AAA, thus hurting his trade value. Like I said, it could be a conspiracy theroy, but it does help me sleep a bit better at night.

DLS is a bit harder to try and tear down considering he rose out of nowhere last season. Not as much is known about him, but the fact remains that he’s a 2-pitch pitcher. If he doesn’t find a third pitcher, he’ll be relegated to relief work. That’s the only knock on him that I could come up with. You can also throw in the regular risks of pitchers getting injured which might make you happier.

So after tearing down Gio and DLS in my mind a little bit, I felt marginally better. My thoughts on the trade didn’t really start to turn until looking at Swish. All I really knew about him was that he was a fan favorite, played sorta recklessly, was a good first baseman, pretty good outfielder, has some power, and doesn’t particularly hit for average. Oh yes, and he has long hair.

The thing that stood out to me the most (well until getting to his contract, more on that later) is his OBP. Like I said in my look at the Quentin trade, the Sox were piss-poor when it came to getting on base last year. They were dead-freakin’-last in all of Major League Baseball. Swish had a .381 OBP last year, up from .372 from the year before. His .381 OBP would have ranked second on the Sox trailing only Jim Thome’s .401 OBP. His OBP is mostly a function of his ability to take walks. He racked up a solid 100 BB’s, which makes me think fondly upon The Big Hurt for doing that year in and year out. His slugging did drop from .493 in ‘06 to .455 in ‘07, but I’m willing to ignore that for two reasons: A) He plays in Oakland, meaning a lot of his doubles there would probably end up as homers at The Cell. B) He had absolutely no protection in the Oakland lineup, meaning he didn’t get nearly as many taters to hit as he did the year behind. I’ll also just throw in his 127 OPS+ would have ranked 2nd on the Sox, so clearly, I originally sold Swisher’s offensive skills way short.

So even better than his offensive skills or the fact that he’s a switch hitter or the fact that he’s just entering his prime years is his contract status. This is how his contract looks:

Nick Swisher (age 26)

2008 - $3.5 million
2009 - $5.3 million
2010 - $6.75 million
2011 - $9 million
2012 - club option for $10.25 million

That’s 5 years that he’s locked up at well below market rate. For comparison’s sake, Aaron Rowand who had a 123 OPS+ and Torii Hunter who had a 122 OPS+ (yes they are better CF’s than Swish but I’m willing to overlook that at the moment); they’re set to make:

Rowand (age 29)

2008 - $12 million, NTC
2009 - $12 million, Limited NTC
2010 - $12 million, Limited NTC
2011 - $12 million, Limited NTC
2012 - $12 million, Limited NTC

Torii Hunter (age 32)

2008 - $16 million
2009 - $17.5 million
2010 - $18 million
2011 - $18 million
2012 - $18 million
plus a $2.5 million signing bonus and a full NTC

Swisher has an unbelievably friendly contract. It’s twice as nice if the Sox decide that they want to trade him farther down the line. If contract inflation remains steady or the prices merely hold at their current rate, Swish will be unbelievably cheap, assuming he’s still a productive player. Swisher is a potential cornerstone player locked up through a healthy chunk of his prime and a low cost. Cost control is important for the Sox since they can’t spend without worry, and with any luck Swish will bring people to the stadium as well which will make him even cost friendlier.

Thoughts Now: I pretty much exhausted all outlets for information when the trade occurred so my thoughts on the trade haven’t really changed. Yes, it’s a shame the Sox system has been gutted after the Richar, Quentin, and Swisher trades, but at least there are a number of cheap, young players on the roster that can be vital cogs for this team. I’m basically just waiting to see Swisher in action. Without a doubt in my mind he’ll become a fan favorite and after reading some of his interviews, he could become a media darling for Chicago’s other team and a reason for hope as we move forward