Breaking: Reds Agree to Trade Griffey to the Sox
July 31st, 2008 Posted in 2008 season, Jeeves, Ken Griffey Jr., Kenny Williams, Paul Konerko, White Sox, tradeUPDATES AT BOTTOM - Also check out TCaptain’s statistical look at the trade my look at what Masset’s departure means and what I may or may not have heard in the White Sox dugout, which I bumped below this running post..
Link
Looks like Ken Griffey Jr. will finally be traded to the White Sox, pending league approval. Kenny’s been after this guy for quite some time now.
Screw my 10 o’clock timeframe, I’m writing now. So it seems that Kenny the ninja has struck again. This guy does an amazing job of not letting people know with whom and for whom he’s working out deals. It’s uncanny. I can’t say that anyone expected Jr. to be on the White Sox. Yes, Kenny tried to get him here in 2005 and it seemed, nearly did, but even with his persistence with his man crushes, it is still shocking.
I would prefer to write this post later today, once the deadline has passed because then we would know who the Sox gave up and if there are any other reactionary moves done by the White Sox. So I guess, I’ll just analyze the deal as it is and then adjust my analysis/update as things occur.
My initial reaction to getting Griffey was bye-bye Paulie. I don’t mean that in the sense that he would be going to Cincy in exchange for Griffey, because there’s no way they want him or his contract nor would he waive hit NTS, but rather I meant bye-bye Paulie’s playing time. If Griffey is starting (there are 4 ways that this could happen, which I will outline) then it would have to be at the expense of Konerko. The ways the Sox could fit Griffey into the lineup are as follows:
1.) White Sox put Griffey in CF and move Swisher to 1B.
2.) White Sox put Griffey in RF and move Dye to 1B.
3.) White Sox put Griffey at DH and move Thome to 1B.
4.) White Sox put Griffey at 1B.
We’ll take these in order. Griffey is a butcher in the outfield. In RF, he is piss poor; in CF would be akin to putting Rob Mackowiak in center…4 years from now. If you put Griffey and Dye next to each other in the outfield, the Sox will give up 5x as many triples as they have allowed up until this point; that is, of course, assuming he doesn’t hurt himself in CF. Putting him in right is nearly as bad, though not quite as terrible at CF so I don’t even want to see him there.
Thome could play first, but he also did hurt himself last time he did that, which makes it a risk for the Sox. Griffey could play first, which to be honest, is the idea that appeals to me the most. Keep in mind, when a hitter is found that just can’t hit, and DH is not an option for them, they just get stuck playing 1st base. So basically, if you are able to catch the ball, you should be able to play first base. I’m not even going to list the defensive metrics for Griffey in the outfield, just trust me on this one. Here are his defensive ratings; he is brutal.
Center Field
UZR: -46 runs per 150 games (2003-2006)
PMR: -44 outs per 150 games (2005-2006)
RZR: -36 outs per 150 games (2004-2006)
Right Field
UZR: -16 runs per 150 games (2007)
PMR: -14 outs per 150 games (2007)
RZR: -22 outs per 150 games (2007-2008)
(h/t Larry at SSS for the defensive stats)
As far as his hitting goes, assuming he is replacing Paulie’s production, the Sox have an upgrade on their hands. On the year, Griff is hitting .245/.355/.432 which is good for a 102 OPS+. He’s actually been above average which is better than Paulie’s .214/.312/.349/OPS+ 74, much better in fact. If you look at recent Griffey (last 28 days) his line looks better: .263/.391/.553/.944 and this was accomplished with a .263 BABIP meaning he could hit even better. So Griffey obviously has some life left in his bat, but once again we’re unsure as to where he fits in the Sox’ plans.
What I think will happen, is that the Sox are going to make another move. I don’t know what, but I feel pretty confident that Kenny won’t rest after this deal. So I’m going to reserve judgement on this deal until we have all the pieces of the puzzle, which includes who the Sox are giving up. I bet that it’s a marginal prospect, because Griffey is more of a salary dump since the Sox would hold a club option for $16.5 million for 2009 with a $4 million buyout and there’s no way in hell they don’t use that buyout option. Think Lance Broadway or worse being sent to the Reds; Lance would be the absolute best they could get, which I think would be a bit much.
One situation, I didn’t canvas yet is the possibility that Griffey platoons (somewhere) or comes off the bench (to play somewhere). Since I have no idea where Griffey would be put defensively, I didn’t want to get into where he would come off the bench to play though I would love a Griffey/Paulie platoon at first.
I’ll stay glued to my computer to find out what’s going on with the Sox and Griffey, so check back here frequently for updates.
Not an Update, but rather an addition Stone speculated on the radio that this would mean Swish is on his way out, presumably to the A’s for Huston Street. This would be BEYOND IDIOTIC for Kenny. Swish is good, far better than he’s hit this year. It seems I never did that post examining just how unlucky Swish has been this year, but his prOPS is at .887 which is far higher than his actual OPS of .753, meaning with a little luck he’d easily be an .800. Throw in the fact that Swish is cheap and under control for many years, and it would be honestly (I’m struggling for an adjective) inane to trade him to the A’s.
UPDATE: 2:58 Official press release. Nothing terribly enlightening in it. Griff will join the team on Friday against KC and will wear number 17.
UPDATE!: 11:23 As far as money is concerned
Sources said the Reds and White Sox will essentially “split’’ what remains on Griffey’s contract this season, along with the cost of his $4 million buyout for 2009.
UPDATE!: 11:02 The previous (see 10:51) update seems to have been confirmed. It has been reported on ESPN. Buster Olney is also saying it looks like they’re going to move Griffey to center field…oh god no!
UPDATE!: 10:51 Damnit, I added this a long time ago, but it didn’t publish properly. Anyway, according to one report, the Sox are sending Danny Richar and Nick Masset the other way. Hooray for the potential end of the reign of Nick Masset!
UPDATE!: 10:19 Griffey has approved the trade.
7 Responses to “Breaking: Reds Agree to Trade Griffey to the Sox”
By Rickhouse on Jul 31, 2008
102 OPS+? That’s higher than I would have thought. Great analysis, man, I can’t believe this is happening. I think Griff has to be in a utility roll at this point. Swisher has proven to be a perfectly average CF, I doubt Griffey is even that competent.
[Reply]
Jeeves Reply:
July 31st, 2008 at 9:47 am
Yah, I was shocked it was that high. Who’da thunk his OPS would be that good. Needless to say, it made me happier about the deal.
[Reply]
By TCaptain on Jul 31, 2008
Wow. I can’t think Kenny is considering what Stone suggested. That would be so beyond stupid. I don’t think I could handle that.
I had heard Poreda was the principal from our end. I’m not even sure I’d do that. Poreda is just about the only elite prospect we have.
But if the deal is Swisher for Street, that’s dumb.
[Reply]
Jeeves Reply:
July 31st, 2008 at 9:49 am
I’m hoping that was just dumb, radio idle speculation, and I will be seriously made if it’s Poreda or Egbert going in the opposite direction. Griffey is a 2 month rental, and a poor one at thate!
[Reply]
By Greg on Jul 31, 2008
“Putting him in right is just about as bad, but not as terrible as putting him at CF.”
Impressive Self-Contradiction. It usually takes me twice as many words.
[Reply]
Jeeves Reply:
July 31st, 2008 at 1:46 pm
How about
“Putting him in right is nearly as bad, though not quite as terrible at CF”
It’s not a complete contradiction, I’m working with shades of awfulness in the field here.
[Reply]