Life In The Cell

Hey! How ’bout Some Pitching?

Since the All-Star Break the Sox have limped along to post a record of 7-8. That isn’t terrible, but with the Twins breathing down the Sox’ neck, it has undoubtedly caused fans (and potentially players) to become a little restless. The problem with the second half Sox isn’t the offense as it was at times in the early going (see end of April). The offense has been putting up 5.67 runs per games post-ASB. Prior to the All Star Game, the offense was averaging 4.94 runs, so we can see that as the temperature has picked up, so has the offense. The issue with the Sox right now, outside of injury, is the pitching. The pitching staff as a whole has given up 6.13 runs per game in the second half which is far worse than the 4.06 they were giving up in the first half. The blame has to spread all around, seeing as both the starters and the relievers are struggling. The only starter pulling his weight is Gavin Floyd who has a 2.29 ERA in his three second half starts. Buehrle (6.08 second half ERA), John Danks (7.88), Vazquez (4.95), and Clayton Richard (9.35) have combined to post a second half ERA of 6.58. The bullpen as struggled as well posting a 4.50 ERA in the second half. That looks light years better than the starters, but keep in mind that in the first half the ‘pen’s ERA was 3.24, so they’ve seen their ERA as a group rise by about 1.25 runs. The starters have seen their ERA rise from 3.35 pre-ASB to 5.63 afterwards, so it’s been ugly all around.

The worrisome question that arises from all this ugly pitching, is whether or not this is just a rough patch or a rapid regression to the mean. The Sox pitching was phenomenal in the first half. They were right up there for best ERA, which explains much of their first half success. The pitching had out perfomed most of the predictive systems (PECOTA, MARCEL, etc), and I think we all realized that eventually the quality of the pitching would begin to slip, it was just a matter of how far. If the current level is indicative of where the Sox pitching has slipped to, the team is in definite trouble, but if this is just the opposite swing of a pendulum and the true mean lies somewhere in between the early season success and the current struggles, then the Sox just may be ok. In the next week or so, I know my focus will be on the pitching staff.

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Today against the Royals, the Sox send young Clayton Richard to the mound for his third start. I’ve covered in first start and his second start in detail, so I suggest you check those out. I will reproduce here, his pitching break downs, because I believe that holds his key to success this time out. If he can mix in a decent number of breaking pitches combined with the effective sinker he had against the Twins, he could turn in a solid start for the Sox.

Start 1

Start 2